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This paper presents a framework to evaluate the regional and local resilience of infrastructure networks following disruptions from natural hazards. Herein, the regional resilience of a network relates to the accessibility of a community within a larger network, whereas the local resilience concerns the ability of a network to provide its intended service within the boundaries of a community. Using this framework, a methodology is developed to demonstrate its application to a road and highway transportation network disrupted by ground shaking and inundation under a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami scenario. The regional network extents encompass the entire coast of the US state of Oregon. Embedded within this regional network are 18 local networks associated with coastal communities. Regional and local connectivity indexes are defined to identify the initial damage and then track the postdisaster recovery of the transportation network, i.e., evaluate the network resilience. The study results identify the attributes that lead to a regionally or locally resilient network and highlight the importance of considering local infrastructure networks embedded within larger regional networks. It is shown that without regional considerations, the time to recover may be severely underpredicted. The methodology is further used as a decision support tool to demonstrate how mitigation options impact the transportation network’s resilience. The importance of strategically considering mitigation options is emphasized as some communities see significant reductions in time to recover, whereas others see little to no improvement.more » « less
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Abstract This paper presents a new coupled urban change and hazard consequence model that considers population growth, a changing built environment, natural hazard mitigation planning, and future acute hazards. Urban change is simulated as an agent‐based land market with six agent types and six land use types. Agents compete for parcels with successful bids leading to changes in both urban land use—affecting where agents are located—and structural properties of buildings—affecting the building's ability to resist damage to natural hazards. IN‐CORE, an open‐source community resilience model, is used to compute damages to the built environment. The coupled model operates under constraints imposed by planning policies defined at the start of a simulation. The model is applied to Seaside, Oregon, a coastal community in the North American Pacific Northwest subject to seismic‐tsunami hazards emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Ten planning scenarios are considered including caps on the number of vacation homes, relocating community assets, limiting new development, and mandatory seismic retrofits. By applying this coupled model to the testbed community, we show that: (a) placing a cap on the number of vacation homes results in more visitors in damaged buildings, (b) that mandatory seismic retrofits do not reduce the number of people in damaged buildings when considering population growth, (c) polices diverge beyond year 10 in the model, indicating that many policies take time to realize their implications, and (d) the most effective policies were those that incorporated elements of both urban planning and enforced building codes.more » « less
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